A lakeside weekend of forecasts, arguments, and long conversations about the rest of the decade. Top forecasters and sharp friends from across the country, working out how to get ready.
01 · The Retreat
[1.1]
An intimate gathering of forecasters and kindred sharp minds, thinking seriously about what the world looks like in 2030 and how to be ready for it.
What we'll discuss →[1.2]
A quiet lake house in a peaceful lake community in Athens, NY. A calm place to think about a fast decade.
See the venue ↗[1.3]
Short talks, forecasting workshops, and long open conversation, plus swimming, campfires, and lake time. A discussion, not a slide deck.
See the shape of it →[1.4]
By invitation. Email with your length of stay and any dietary restrictions. Rooms are free, so just get here.
Email a request →02 · The Question Board
The Through Line
Before the particulars: if the current rate of change holds, what does it actually mean for a person, a group of friends, or a city to be ready for the end of the decade? Every other question on the board branches off this one.
Timelines
The room will be full of people who forecast for a living. We'll put real numbers and real cruxes on the table: what would move your timeline two years in either direction, and what evidence should we expect to see first?
The Economy
Astonishing successes beside embarrassing failures: how uneven AI progress reshapes work, wages, and everyday life, with welfare gains that outrun measured GDP. We'll take Jonathan's essay as the starting position and attack it.
Read the essay ↗The Workplace
The technology may be ready, but organizations are not. Even where models match the professionals, the bottleneck just moves: to specification, to tacit knowledge, to the authority to act. Jonathan's essay argues the paycheck survives to 2030; the room gets to stress-test it.
Read the essay ↗The Personal
The question everyone asks privately, taken seriously in public: what should a smart 30-something actually do differently? Career moves, savings rates, skills worth building, and what to tell the kids, argued by people who put probabilities on things for a living.
The Market
Capital, talent, and attention are about to be repriced. Which sectors compound the gains from cheap intelligence, which quietly get hollowed out, and which entirely new ones show up that nobody has a ticker for yet? Bring your bets; we'll rank them.
The Civic
The places built on finance, media, law, and ambition meet the technology that automates cognitive work. Which of our institutions are antifragile, which are quietly obsolete, and which are walking into the decade blind?
The probabilities are provocations, not positions. Bring your own numbers and we'll argue about them at the lake. The board will grow as sessions firm up; attendees are welcome to claim a question or propose one.
03 · Warm-up
Nothing is recorded; this is between you and your calibration. But remember the number: we'll ask again on Sunday.
04 · The Timetable
Thu · Sep 10
Arrival
Fri · Sep 11
Sessions
Sat · Sep 12
Deep work
Sun · Sep 13
Resolution
This is the shape, not the schedule. The full timetable is being calibrated and will land here closer to September.
05 · Register
Attendance is by invitation. Email with your length of stay and any dietary restrictions. Rooms are free, so just get here.
Request an invitation →